Testing the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v3i1.1084Abstract
A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating between foreshocks and aftershocks, confirming previous findings regarding the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. However, a blind algorithm reveals that the discriminative ability of the b-value necessitates a meticulous selection of the catalogue, thereby reducing the predictability of large events occurring subsequent to a prior major earthquake.
References
Aki, K. (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N=a-bM and its confidence limits. Bull. Earthq. Res. Inst., Univ. Tokyo, 43, 237–239.
Amitrano, D. (2003). Brittle-ductile transition and associated seismicity: Experimental and numerical studies and relationship with the b value. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108(B1), 2044. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000680 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000680
Cao, A., & Gao, S. S. (2002). Temporal variation of seismic b-values beneath northeastern Japan island arc. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(9), 48-1-48–3. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013775 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2001GL013775
Console, R., Jackson, D., & Kagan, Y. (2007). Using the ETAS Model for Catalog Declustering and Seismic Background Assessment. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 167, 819–830. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0065-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-010-0065-5
de Arcangelis L., Godano, C., R., G. J., & E., L. (2016). Statistical physics approach to earthquake occurrence and forecasting. Physics Reports, 628, 1–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2016.03.002 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2016.03.002
García‐Hernández, R., D’Auria, L., Barrancos, J., Padilla, G. D., & Pérez, N. M. (2021). Multiscale Temporal and Spatial Estimation of the b‐Value. Seismological Research Letters, XX, 1–13. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200388 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200388
Godano, C. (2017). A new method for the estimation of the completeness magnitude . Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors , 263, 7–11. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2016.12.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2016.12.003
Godano, C., Convertito, V., Pino, N. A., & Tramelli, A. (2022). An Automated Method for Mapping Independent Spatial b Values. Earth and Space Science, 9(6), e2021EA002205. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA002205 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EA002205
Godano, C., & Petrillo, G. (2023). Estimating the Completeness Magnitude mc and the b-Values in a Snap. Earth and Space Science, 10(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002540 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EA002540
Godano, C., Petrillo, G., & Lippiello, E. (2023). Evaluating the incompleteness magnitude using an unbiased estimate of the b value. Geophysical Journal International, submitted. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad466
Gulia, L., & Wiemer, S. (2019). Real-time discrimination of earthquake foreshocks and aftershocks. Nature, 574, 193–199. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1606-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1606-4
Gulia, Laura, & Wiemer, S. (2010). The influence of tectonic regimes on the earthquake size distribution: A case study for Italy. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043066 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043066
Gutenberg, B., & Richter, C. F. (1944). Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 34(4), 185–188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0340040185
Helmstetter, A., Kagan, Y. Y., & Jackson, D. D. (2006). Comparison of Short-Term and Time-Independent Earthquake Forecast Models for Southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(1), 90–106. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050067 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050067
Helmstetter, A., & Sornette, D. (2003). Foreshocks explained by cascades of triggered seismicity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108(B10), 2457. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002409 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002409
Kagan, Y. Y. (2002). Aftershock zone scaling. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(2), 641–655. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010172 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010172
Kamer, Y., & Hiemer, S. (2015). Data-driven spatial b value estimation with applications to California seismicity: To b or not to b. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 120(7), 5191–5214. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011510 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011510
Lippiello, E., Giacco, F., de Arcangelis, L., Marzocchi, W., & Godano, C. (2014). Parameter Estimation in the ETAS Model: Approximations and Novel Methods. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(2), 985–994. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120070256 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130148
Lombardi, A. M. (2022). Anomalies and transient variations of b-value in Italy during the major earthquake sequences: what truth is there to this? Geophysical Journal International, 232(3), 1545–1555. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac403 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggac403
Lombardi, M., & Marzocchi, W. (2010). The ETAS model for daily forecasting of Italian seismicity in the CSEP experiment. Annals of Geophysics, 53. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4848 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-4848
Mignan, A., & Woessner, J. (2012). Estimating the magnitude of completeness for earthquake catalogs. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis. https://doi.org/10.5078/corssa-00180805
Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes. J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 83(401), 9–27. https://doi.org/10.2307/2288914 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1988.10478560
Ogata, Y. (1998). Space-time point-process models for earthquake occurrences. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 50, 379–402. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003403601725 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003403601725
Ogata, Y. (1999). Seismicity Analysis through Point-process Modeling: A Review. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 155(2–4), 471–507. https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050275 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s000240050275
Ogata, Y., & Katsura, K. (1993). Analysis of temporal and spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution inferred from earthquake catalogues. Geophysical Journal International, 113(3), 727–738. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.tb04663.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.tb04663.x
Ogata, Y., & Zhuang, J. (2006). Space–time ETAS models and an improved extension . Tectonophysics , 413(1–2), 13–23. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016
Ohmura, A., & Kawamura, H. (2007). Rate- and state-dependent friction law and statistical properties of earthquakes. EPL (Europhysics Letters), 77(6), 69001. https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/77/69001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/77/69001
Papadopoulos, G. A., Charalampakis, M., Fokaefs, A., & Minadakis, G. (2010). Strong foreshock signal preceding the L’Aquila (Italy) earthquake (Mw 6.3) of 6 April 2009. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 10(1), 19–24. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-19-2010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-19-2010
Papadopoulos, G., Minadakis, G., & Orfanogiannaki, K. (2018). Short-Term Foreshocks and Earthquake Prediction. In Pre‐Earthquake Processes (pp. 125–147). American Geophysical Union (AGU). https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119156949.ch8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119156949.ch8
Papadopoulos, Gerassimos A. (1988). Long-term accelerating foreshock activity may indicate the occurrence time of a strong shock in the Western Hellenic Arc . Tectonophysics , 152(3–4), 179–192. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(88)90044-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(88)90044-3
Petrillo, G, & Lippiello, E. (2020). Testing of the foreshock hypothesis within an epidemic like description of seismicity. Geophysical Journal International, 225(2), 1236–1257. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa611 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa611
Petrillo, Giuseppe, & Lippiello, E. (2023). Incorporating Foreshocks in an Epidemic-like Description of Seismic Occurrence in Italy. Applied Sciences, 13(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/app13084891 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app13084891
Petrillo, Giuseppe, & Zhuang, J. (2022). The debate on the earthquake magnitude correlations: A meta-analysis. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 20683. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-25276-1
Petrillo, Giuseppe, & Zhuang, J. (2023). Verifying the magnitude dependence in earthquake occurrence. Physical Review Letters, 131(15), 154101. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.131.154101 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.131.154101
Pino, N. A., Convertito, V., Godano, C., & Piromallo, C. (2022). Subduction age and stress state control on seismicity in the NW Pacific subducting plate. Sci. Rep., 12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16076-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-16076-8
Roberts, N. S., Bell, A. F., & Main, I. G. (2015). Are volcanic seismic b-values high, and if so when? Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 308, 127–141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.10.021
Rydelek, P. A., & Sacks, I. S. (1989). Testing the completeness of earth- quake catalogs and the hypothesis of self-similarity. Nature, 337, 251–253. https://doi.org/10.1038/337251a0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/337251a0
Scholz, C. H. (1968). The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 58, 399–415. https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0580010399 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/BSSA0580010399
Taroni, M., Zhuang, J., & Marzocchi, W. (2021). High‐Definition Mapping of the Gutenberg–Richter b‐Value and Its Relevance: A Case Study in Italy. Seismological Research Letters, XX, 1–7. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210017 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220210017
Tormann, T., Wiemer, S., & Mignan, A. (2014). Systematic survey of high-resolution b value imaging along Californian faults: Inference on asperities. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 119(3), 2029–2054. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010867 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JB010867
Tramelli, A., Godano, C., Ricciolino, P., Giudicepietro, F., Caliro, S., Orazi, M., De Martino, P., & Chiodini, G. (2021). Statistics of seismicity to investigate the Campi Flegrei caldera unrest. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 7211. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86506-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-86506-6
Tramelli, Anna, Troise, C., De Natale, G., & Orazi, M. (2013). A new method for optimization and testing of microseismic networks: an application to Campi Flegrei (Southern Italy). Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(3), 1679–1691. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120211 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120211
Utsu, T., & Seki, A. (1954). A relation between the area of aftershock region and the energy of mainshock. J. Seismol. Soc. Jpn., 7, 233–240. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4294/zisin1948.7.4_233
van der Elst, N. J. (2021). B-Positive: A Robust Estimator of Aftershock Magnitude Distribution in Transiently Incomplete Catalogs. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(2), e2020JB021027. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB021027 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB021027
Wiemer, S., & Wyss, M. (1997). Mapping the frequency-magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times? J. Geophys. Res., 102, 15,115-15,128. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB00726 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB00726
Wiemer, S., & Wyss, M. (2002). Mapping spatial variability of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes. Adv. Geophys., 45, 259–302. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(02)80007-3 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2687(02)80007-3
Wiemer, Stefan. (2001). A Software Package to Analyze Seismicity: ZMAP. Seismological Research Letters, 72(3), 373–382. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.72.3.373 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.72.3.373
Wiemer, Stefan, & Wyss, M. (2000). Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859–869. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990114 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990114
Wyss, M. (1973). Towards a Physical Understanding of the Earthquake Frequency Distribution. Geophysical Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society, 31(4), 341–359. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1973.tb06506.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1973.tb06506.x
Y., O. (1983). Estimation of the Parameters in the Modified Omori Formula for Aftershock Frequencies by the Maximum Likelihood Procedure. Journal of Physics of the Earth, 31(2), 115–124. DOI: https://doi.org/10.4294/jpe1952.31.115
Zhuang, J. (2011). Next-day earthquake forecasts for the Japan region generated by the ETAS model. Earth Planets and Space, 63, 207–216. https://doi.org/doi.org/10.5047/eps.2010.12.010 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5047/eps.2010.12.010
Zhuang, J. (2012). Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model for short-term clustering. Research in Geophysics, 2. https://doi.org/10.4081/rg.2012.e8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4081/rg.2012.e8
Zhuang, J., & Touati, S. (2015). Stochastic simulation of earthquake catalogs. Community Online Resource for Statistical Seismicity Analysis.
Zhuang, Jiancang, Ogata, Y., & Vere-Jones, D. (2004). Analyzing earthquake clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 109(B5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002879 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002879
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Cataldo Godano, Anna Tramelli, Giuseppe Petrillo, Vincenzo Convertito
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
