Testing the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity


  • Cataldo Godano Università della Campania "L. Vanvitelli"
  • Anna Tramelli Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Italy.
  • Giuseppe Petrillo The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Research Organization of Information and Systems, Tokyo 106-8569, Japan. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2339-559X
  • Vincenzo Convertito Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Napoli Osservatorio Vesuviano, Napoli, Italy.




A very efficient method for estimating the completeness magnitude mc and the scaling parameter b of earthquake magnitude distribution has been thoroughly tested using synthetic seismic catalogues. Subsequently, the method was employed to assess the capability of the b-value in differentiating between foreshocks and aftershocks, confirming previous findings regarding the Amatrice-Norcia earthquake sequence. However, a blind algorithm reveals that the discriminative ability of the b-value necessitates a meticulous selection of the catalogue, thereby reducing the predictability of large events occurring subsequent to a prior major earthquake.


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How to Cite

Godano, C., Tramelli, A., Petrillo, G., & Convertito, V. (2024). Testing the Predictive Power of b Value for Italian Seismicity. Seismica, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v3i1.1084