Partial ruptures governed by the complex interplay between geodetic slip deficit, rigidity, and pore fluid pressure in 3D Cascadia dynamic rupture simulations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i4.1427Abstract
Physics-based dynamic rupture simulations are valuable for assessing the seismic hazard in the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), but require assumptions about fault stress and material properties. Geodetic slip deficit models (SDMs) may provide information about the initial stresses governing megathrust earthquake dynamics. We present a unified workflow linking SDMs to 3D dynamic rupture simulations, and 22 rupture scenarios to unravel the dynamic trade-offs of assumptions for SDMs, rigidity, and pore fluid pressure. We find that margin-wide rupture, an earthquake that ruptures the entire length of the plate boundary, requires a large slip deficit in the central CSZ. Comparisons between Gaussian and smoother, shallow-coupled SDMs show significant differences in stress distributions and rupture dynamics. Variations in depth-dependent rigidity cause competing effects, particularly in the near-trench region. Higher overall rigidity can increase fault slip but also result in lower initial shear stresses, inhibiting slip. The state of pore fluid pressure is crucial in balancing SDM-informed initial shear stresses with realistic dynamic rupture processes, especially assuming small recurrence time scaling factors. This study highlights the importance of self-consistent assumptions for rigidity and initial stresses between geodetic, structural, and dynamic rupture models, providing a foundation for future simulations of ground motions and tsunami generation.
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