Revisiting the causal factors of seismicity in the Dallas–Fort Worth area
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v5i2.1779Keywords:
Dallas, Texas, Induced seismicity, oil and gas production, fracking, seismic riskAbstract
The seismicity levels in the Fort Worth basin over the last 15 years have been elevated, with one earthquake above magnitude 4 occurring in 2015. Wastewater disposal (SWD) for oil and gas activities has been reported as the causal factor. We applied an established probabilistic framework to examine the extent to which either SWD or hydraulic fracturing (HF) are potential causal factors. Our framework employed new regional earthquake catalogs and established physics-based principles. We first hindcasted the seismicity rates after 2008 on a spatial grid using either HF or wastewater data as input, and then compared them against the null hypothesis of solely tectonic loading. We identified one unnamed sequence as induced by HF. A causal link between SWD and the Irving-Dallas and Lake Lewisville sequences is apparent for large diffusivity values. Curiously, our framework finds no significant link with SWD for the Venus, Azle or Cleburne earthquake clusters. That said, the method assumes a temporally consistent seismic response within each grid-cell, which does not appear to be the case in the basin. Rather, the basin is dominated by isolated sequences on a small percentage of faults. We conclude that the Fort Worth basin is not prone to widespread fault reactivation, allowing for effective mitigation measures.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Iason Grigoratos, Alexandros Savvaidis, Heather DeShon, Stefan Wiemer
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U.S. Geological Survey
Grant numbers G22AS00006
