Does Episodic Tremor and Slip Influence Seismicity in Northern Cascadia?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v5i1.1953Keywords:
Cascadia, episodic tremor and slip, tectonic tremor, b-value, Earthquake StatisticsAbstract
This paper presents a spatial-temporal analysis of potential links between episodic tremor and slip (ETS) and seismicity in northern Cascadia. We define spatial-temporal clusters of tremor episodes to represent ETS between 2006 and 2024, and we merge six earthquake catalogues to represent regional seismicity. The statistical analysis focuses on seismicity rates and magnitude distributions of earthquakes throughout the mid-lower forearc crust and within the subducting plate. We find that in time periods between ETS events there exist fewer M > 2.5 earthquakes in/near the ETS zone than are predicted by a best-fit Gutenberg–Richter law (GR). During ETS and shortly afterwards, M > 2.5 earthquakes in close proximity to ETS events are slightly more numerous, such that seismicity is accurately represented by the GR law. Variations in earthquake magnitudes before ETS and during/after ETS are shown to be statistically significant, although the overall average occurrence rate of M > 2.5 earthquakes per ETS event is low, at 0.8 earthquakes per ETS event. We find no statistical evidence for temporal variations in daily seismicity rates (regional and proximal to ETS) in association with ETS. We discuss several challenges in the study of this topic in Cascadia, and highlight some instances that may warrant further investigation.
References
Aki, K. (1965). Maximum likelihood estimate of b in the formula log N=a-bM and its confidence limits. Bulletin of the Earthquake Research Institute, 43, 237–239.
Bartlow, N. M. (2020). A Long‐Term View of Episodic Tremor and Slip in Cascadia. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl085303
Bloch, W., Bostock, M. G., & Audet, P. (2023). A Cascadia Slab Model From Receiver Functions. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 24(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gc011088
Bombardier, M. (2025). Episode Metadata v2 [data set]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15206757
Bombardier, M., Cassidy, J. F., Dosso, S. E., & Kao, H. (2024). Spatial Distribution of Tremor Episodes From Long‐Term Monitoring in the Northern Cascadia Subduction Zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 129(8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jb029159
Bostock, M. G., Christensen, N. I., & Peacock, S. M. (2019). Seismicity in Cascadia. Lithos, 332–333, 55–66. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lithos.2019.02.019
Boyarko, D. C., Brudzinski, M. R., Porritt, R. W., Allen, R. M., & Tréhu, A. M. (2015). Automated detection and location of tectonic tremor along the entire Cascadia margin from 2005 to 2011. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 430, 160–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.06.026
Brudzinski, M. R., & Allen, R. M. (2007). Segmentation in episodic tremor and slip all along Cascadia. Geology, 35(10), 907. https://doi.org/10.1130/g23740a.1
Davis, E. E., Sun, T., Heesemann, M., Becker, K., & Schlesinger, A. (2023). Long‐Term Offshore Borehole Fluid‐Pressure Monitoring at the Northern Cascadia Subduction Zone and Inferences Regarding the State of Megathrust Locking. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 24(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gc010910
Delahaye, E. J., Townend, J., Reyners, M. E., & Rogers, G. (2009). Microseismicity but no tremor accompanying slow slip in the Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 277(1–2), 21–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2008.09.038
Dragert, H., Wang, K., & James, T. S. (2001). A Silent Slip Event on the Deeper Cascadia Subduction Interface. Science, 292(5521), 1525–1528. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1060152
Ester, M., Kriegel, H.-P., Sander, J., & Xu, X. (1996). A Density-Based Algorithm for Discovering Clusters in Large Spatial Databases with Noise. Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 226–231.
Gao, X., & Wang, K. (2017). Rheological separation of the megathrust seismogenic zone and episodic tremor and slip. Nature, 543(7645), 416–419. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature21389
Halchuk, S., Allen, T. I., Rogers, G. C., & Adams, J. (2015). Seismic Hazard Earthquake Epicentre File (SHEEF2010) used in the fifth generation seismic hazard maps of Canada. Natural Resources Canada/CMSS/Information Management. https://doi.org/10.4095/296908
Hall, K., Schmidt, D., & Houston, H. (2019). Peak Tremor Rates Lead Peak Slip Rates During Propagation of Two Large Slow Earthquakes in Cascadia. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 20(11), 4665–4675. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gc008510
Hirose, H., Matsuzawa, T., Kimura, T., & Kimura, H. (2014). The Boso slow slip events in 2007 and 2011 as a driving process for the accompanying earthquake swarm. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(8), 2778–2785. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014gl059791
Itoh, Y., Aoki, Y., & Fukuda, J. (2022). Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS. Scientific Reports, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-10957-8
Kao, H., Shan, S., Dragert, H., & Rogers, G. (2009). Northern Cascadia episodic tremor and slip: A decade of tremor observations from 1997 to 2007. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114(B11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006046
Kao, H., Wang, K., Dragert, H., Kao, J. Y., & Rogers, G. (2010). Estimating seismic moment magnitude (Mw) of tremor bursts in northern Cascadia: Implications for the “seismic efficiency” of episodic tremor and slip. Geophysical Research Letters, 37(19). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010gl044927
Kato, A., Obara, K., Igarashi, T., Tsuruoka, H., Nakagawa, S., & Hirata, N. (2012). Propagation of Slow Slip Leading Up to the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake. Science, 335(6069), 705–708. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1215141
Kirkpatrick, J. D., Fagereng, A., & Shelly, D. R. (2021). Geological constraints on the mechanisms of slow earthquakes. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 2(4), 285–301. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-021-00148-w
Kita, S., Houston, H., Yabe, S., Tanaka, S., Asano, Y., Shibutani, T., & Suda, N. (2021). Effects of episodic slow slip on seismicity and stress near a subduction-zone megathrust. Nature Communications, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27453-8
Linde, A. T., Gladwin, M. T., Johnston, M. J. S., Gwyther, R. L., & Bilham, R. G. (1996). A slow earthquake sequence on the San Andreas fault. Nature, 383(6595), 65–68. https://doi.org/10.1038/383065a0
Merrill, R., Bostock, M. G., Peacock, S. M., Calvert, A. J., & Christensen, N. I. (2020). A Double Difference Tomography Study of the Washington Forearc: Does Siletzia Control Crustal Seismicity? Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 125(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb019750
Morton, E. A., Bilek, S. L., & Rowe, C. A. (2023). Cascadia Subduction Zone Fault Heterogeneities From Newly Detected Small Magnitude Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 128(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jb026607
Nishikawa, T., Ide, S., & Nishimura, T. (2023). A review on slow earthquakes in the Japan Trench. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 10(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00528-w
Nishikawa, T., Nishimura, T., & Okada, Y. (2021). Earthquake Swarm Detection Along the Hikurangi Trench, New Zealand: Insights Into the Relationship Between Seismicity and Slow Slip Events. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020jb020618
Ozawa, S., Murakami, M., & Tada, T. (2001). Time‐dependent inversion study of the slow thrust event in the Nankai trough subduction zone, southwestern Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 106(B1), 787–802. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000jb900317
Rogers, G., & Dragert, H. (2003). Episodic Tremor and Slip on the Cascadia Subduction Zone: The Chatter of Silent Slip. Science, 300(5627), 1942–1943. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1084783
Savard, G., Bostock, M. G., & Christensen, N. I. (2018). Seismicity, Metamorphism, and Fluid Evolution Across the Northern Cascadia Fore Arc. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 19(6), 1881–1897. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017gc007417
Schneider, M., Flury, H., Guttorp, P., & Wright, A. (2023). Earthquake Catalog Processing and Swarm Identification for the Pacific Northwest. Seismological Research Letters, 94(5), 2500–2513. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220220374
Schwartz, S. Y., & Rokosky, J. M. (2007). Slow slip events and seismic tremor at circum‐Pacific subduction zones. Reviews of Geophysics, 45(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006rg000208
Segall, P., Desmarais, E. K., Shelly, D., Miklius, A., & Cervelli, P. (2006). Earthquakes triggered by silent slip events on Kı̄lauea volcano, Hawaii. Nature, 442(7098). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature04938
Shaddox, H. R., & Schwartz, S. Y. (2019). Subducted seamount diverts shallow slow slip to the forearc of the northern Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand. Geology, 47(5), 415–418. https://doi.org/10.1130/g45810.1
Shi, Y., & Bolt, B. A. (1982). The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 72(5), 1677–1687. https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0720051677
Todd, E. K., Schwartz, S. Y., Mochizuki, K., Wallace, L. M., Sheehan, A. F., Webb, S. C., Williams, C. A., Nakai, J., Yarce, J., Fry, B., Henrys, S., & Ito, Y. (2018). Earthquakes and Tremor Linked to Seamount Subduction During Shallow Slow Slip at the Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 123(8), 6769–6783. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jb016136
Tréhu, A. M., Braunmiller, J., & Nabelek, J. L. (2008). Probable low-angle thrust earthquakes on the Juan de Fuca–North America plate boundary. Geology, 36(2), 127. https://doi.org/10.1130/g24145a.1
Vidale, J. E., Hotovec, A. J., Ghosh, A., Creager, K. C., & Gomberg, J. (2011). Tiny intraplate earthquakes triggered by nearby episodic tremor and slip in Cascadia. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 12(6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011gc003559
Wallace, L. M., Beavan, J., Bannister, S., & Williams, C. (2012). Simultaneous long‐term and short‐term slow slip events at the Hikurangi subduction margin, New Zealand: Implications for processes that control slow slip event occurrence, duration, and migration. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 117(B11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012jb009489
Wech, A. G. (2010). Interactive Tremor Monitoring. Seismological Research Letters, 81(4), 664–669. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.4.664
Wech, A. G. (2021). Cataloging Tectonic Tremor Energy Radiation in the Cascadia Subduction Zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb022523
Wech, A. G., & Bartlow, N. M. (2014). Slip rate and tremor genesis in Cascadia. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2), 392–398. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013gl058607
Wech, A. G., Boese, C. M., Stern, T. A., & Townend, J. (2012). Tectonic tremor and deep slow slip on the Alpine Fault. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051751
Wech, A. G., & Creager, K. C. (2008). Automated detection and location of Cascadia tremor. Geophysical Research Letters, 35(20). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl035458
Wech, A. G., & Creager, K. C. (2011). A continuum of stress, strength and slip in the Cascadia subduction zone. Nature Geoscience, 4(9), 624–628. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1215
Wech, A. G., Creager, K. C., & Melbourne, T. I. (2009). Seismic and geodetic constraints on Cascadia slow slip. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 114(B10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2008jb006090
Wiemer, S., & Wyss, M. (2000). Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 90(4), 859–869. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119990114
Yamamoto, Y., Yada, S., Ariyoshi, K., Hori, T., & Takahashi, N. (2022). Seismicity distribution in the Tonankai and Nankai seismogenic zones and its spatiotemporal relationship with interplate coupling and slow earthquakes. Progress in Earth and Planetary Science, 9(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40645-022-00493-4
Yarce, J., Sheehan, A. F., & Roecker, S. (2023). Temporal Relationship of Slow Slip Events and Microearthquake Seismicity: Insights From Earthquake Automatic Detections in the Northern Hikurangi Margin, Aotearoa New Zealand. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 24(3). https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gc010537
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Madison Bombardier, Johh F. Cassidy, Stan E. Dosso

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Funding data
-
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
Grant numbers RGPIN‐2024‐04391

