Could planet/sun conjunctions be used to predict large (moment magnitude ≥ 7) earthquakes?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v2i1.528Keywords:
prediction, planet conjunction, earthquakeAbstract
No.
References
Awadh, S. M. (2021). Solar system planetary alignment triggers tides and earthquakes. Journal of Coastal Conservation, 25(2), 30,. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-021-00822-7
Chappell, B. (2023). No you can’t predict earthquakes, the USGS says. https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154893886/earthquake-prediction-turkey-usgs
Cochran, E. S., Vidale, J. E., & Tanaka, S. (2004). Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes. Science, 306(5699), 1164-1166,. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.110396
Di Giacomo, D., Engdahl, E. R., & Storchak, D. A. (2018). The isc-gem earthquake catalogue (1904–2014): status after the extension project. Earth System Science Data, 10(4), 1877-1899,. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-1877-2018
Folkner, W. M., Williams, J. G., Boggs, D. H., Park, R. S., & Kuchynka, P. (2014). The Planetary and Lunar Ephemerides DE430 and DE431. IPN Progress Report 42-196.
Garcia, A. (2017). Dutch Earthquake “Enthusiast” Claims to Predict Major Tremor. https://www.snopes.com/news/2017/03/01/dutch-earthquake-enthusiast-claims-to-predict-major-tremor/
Hirose, F., Maeda, K., & Kamigaichi, O. (2022). Efficiency of earthquake forecast models based on earth tidal correlation with background seismicity along the Tonga–Kermadec trench. Earth, Planets and Space, 74(1), 1-11,. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-021-01564-4
Hough, S. E. (2018). Do large (magnitude8) global earthquakes occur on preferred days of the calendar year or lunar cycle? Seismol. Res. Lett, 89(2A), 577-581,. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170154
Ide, S., Yabe, S., & Tanaka, Y. (2016). Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size–frequency statistics. Nature Geoscience, 9(11), 834-837,. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2796
ISC. (2018). ISC-GEM Earthquake Catalogue. https://doi.org/10.31905/d808b825
Khalisi, E. (2021). On the erroneous correlation between earthquakes and eclipses. Preprint ArXiv:2101.08572. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2101.08572
Kossobokov, V. G., & Panza, G. F. (2020). A myth of preferred days of strong earthquakes? Seismol. Res. Lett, 91(2A), 948-955,. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220190157
Michael, A. J. (2014). How complete is the isc-gem global earthquake catalog? Bull. Seism. Soc. Am, 104(4), 1829-1837,. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130227
Nakata, R., Suda, N., & Tsuruoka, H. (2008). Non-volcanic tremor resulting from the combined effect of earth tides and slow slip events. Nature Geoscience, 1(10), 676-678,. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo288
Omerbashich, M. (2011). Astronomical alignments as the cause of m6+ seismicity. Preprint ArXiv:1104.2036. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1104.2036
Peng, G., Lei, X., Wang, G., & Jiang, F. (2021). Precursory tidal triggering and b value variation before the 2011 mw 5.1 and 5.0 tengchong, china earthquakes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett, 574, 117,167,. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117167
Rubinstein, J. L., Rocca, M., Vidale, J. E., Creager, K. C., & Wech, A. G. (2008). Tidal modulation of nonvolcanic tremor. Science, 319(5860), 186–189. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1150558
Safronov, A. N. (2022). Astronomical triggers as a cause of strong earthquakes. International Journal of Geosciences, 13(9), 793-829,. https://doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2022.139040
Schuster, A. (1897). On lunar and solar periodicities of earthquakes. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 61(369–377), 455–465. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1897.0060
Service Checknews. (2019). Non, l’alignement des planètes n’annonce pas un séisme majeur à venir (lien signalé sur facebook). In Libération. https://www.liberation.fr/checknews/2019/02/21/non-l-alignement-des-planetes-n-annonce-pas-un-seisme-majeur-a-venir-lien-signale-sur-facebook_1710551/
Storchak, D. A., Di Giacomo, D., Bondar, I., Engdahl, E. R., Harris, J., Lee, W. H., Villasenor, A., & Bormann, P. (2013). Public release of the isc–gem global instrumental earth- quake catalogue. Seismol. Res. Lett, 84(5), 810–815. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130034
Storchak, D. A., Di Giacomo, D., Engdahl, E. R., Harris, J., Bondar, I., Lee, W. H., & Bormann, A., P. and Villasenor. (2015). The isc-gem global instrumental earthquake catalogue (1900– 2009): introduction. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, 239, 48–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2014.06.009
Tanaka, S. (2010). Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the recent sumatra megathrust earthquakes of 26 december 2004 (mw 9.0) and 12 september 2007 (mw 8.5). Geophys. Res. Lett, 37(2). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL041581
Tanaka, S. (2012). Tidal triggering of earthquakes prior to the 2011 tohoku-oki earthquake (mw 9.1). Geophys. Res. Lett, 39(7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051179
The Astropy Collaboration et al. (2018). The astropy project: building an open-science project and status of the v2. 0 core package. The Astronomical Journal, 156(3). https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/aabc4f
The Astropy Collaboration et al. (2022). The astropy project: sustaining and growing a community-oriented open-source project and the latest major release (v5. 0) of the core package. The Astrophysical Journal, 935(2). https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac7c74
Thomas, A., Burgmann, R., Shelly, D. R., Beeler, N. M., & Rudolph, M. (2012). Tidal triggering of low frequency earthquakes near parkfield, california: Implications for fault mechanics within the brittle-ductile transition. J. Geophys. Res, 117(B5). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009036
Tsuruoka, H., Ohtake, M., & Sato, H. (1995). Statistical test of the tidal triggering of earthquakes: contribution of the ocean tide loading effect. Geophys. J. Int, 122(1), 183–194. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.1995.tb03546.x
U. S. Geological Survey. (2017). Earthquake Hazards Program, 2017, Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Catalog of Earthquake Events and Products: Various. https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MS3QZH
Witze, A. (2016). Moon’s pull can trigger big earthquakes. In Nature. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature.2016.20551
Yan, R., Chen, X., Sun, H., Xu, J., & Zhou, J. (2023). A review of tidal triggering of global earthquakes. Contemporary Research in Geodynamics and Earth Tides, 14(1). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geog.2022.06.005
Zaccagnino, D., Telesca, L., & Doglioni, C. (2022). Correlation between seismic activity and tidal stress perturbations highlights growing instability within the brittle crust. Scientific Reports, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11328-z
Zanette, D. H. (2011). Comment on ”astronomical alignments as the cause of m6+ seismicity”. Preprint ArXiv:1109.1240. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1109.1240
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Pierre Romanet
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Funding data
-
European Research Council
Grant numbers 101040600 (HYQUAKE)
