Paleoseismic evidence for surface rupturing earthquakes on the West Caspian Fault (Azerbaijan): an active right lateral strike slip fault zone in an over-pressured sedimentary basin

Authors

  • Neill Marshall COMET, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University
  • Ibrahim Guliyev Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan
  • Gurban Yetirmishli Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0542-2443
  • Rauf Muradov Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan
  • Sabina Kazimova Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3013-7361
  • Ilyas Kazimov Republican Seismic Survey Center of Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan
  • Ian Pierce COMET, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-2512
  • Ed Rhodes Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield
  • Richard Walker COMET, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University
  • Rashid Javanshir Azerbaijan National Academy of Science, Baku, Azerbaijan https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2208-8475
  • Ben Johnson COMET, Department of Earth Sciences, Oxford University
  • Gregory De Pascale School of Engineering and Natural Sciences, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v5i2.1539

Keywords:

paleoseismology, neotectonics, active faults, Strike-slip faulting

Abstract

We provide the first geomorphic evidence for active right-lateral strike-slip faulting at the eastern margins of the Greater Caucasus and western margins of the South Caspian Basin. The West Caspian Fault comprises several parallel strands, exhibiting numerous right-lateral stream deflections, following mud volcano alignments. Mud volcanoes occur predominantly at bends and folds along the otherwise strike-slip trace, indicating a structural control on emplacement. Mud volcano distribution and alignments in seismicity allow us to infer a total fault length of ~150 km. We estimate a Holocene slip-rate of 3.9-4.8 mm/yr, based upon a displaced terrace riser of assumed age. Two paleoseismic trenches reveal between five and six surface rupture events over the last 3000 years, and an average recurrence interval of 500-600 years. The events are unevenly spaced in time, with a cluster of 3 events in the last 650 years, and longer intervals earlier. From earthquake scaling relationships we expect rupture of the entire fault length to produce Mw 7.5 events with average slip of 3 m, consistent with the smaller measured lateral offsets. However, a lack of historical earthquakes combined with inferences on fault behaviour within the fluid-rich over-pressured Kura basin sediments lead us to speculate that the ruptures may represent aseismic slip or low-magnitude surface-rupturing earthquakes.

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2026-08-12

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Marshall, N., Guliyev, I., Yetirmishli, G., Muradov, R., Kazimova, S., Kazimov, I., Pierce, I., Rhodes, E., Walker, R., Javanshir, R., Johnson, B., & De Pascale, G. (2026). Paleoseismic evidence for surface rupturing earthquakes on the West Caspian Fault (Azerbaijan): an active right lateral strike slip fault zone in an over-pressured sedimentary basin. Seismica, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.26443/seismica.v5i2.1539

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Vol. 5 No. 2 (2026)

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Copyright (c) 2026 Neill Marshall, Ibrahim Guliyev, Gurban Yetirmishli, Rauf Muradov, Sabina Kazimova, Ilyas Kazimov, Ian Pierce, Ed Rhodes, Richard Walker, Rashid Javanshir, Ben Johnson, Gregory De Pascale

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Funding data

  • http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000275
    Grant numbers RPG-2018-371;RPG-2018-243
  • http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000270
    Grant numbers NE/J02001X/1;GA/13/M/031